Presidential Election is in Full Swing

  As July drew to a close the commerce department released the second quarter economic report with a disappointing 1.2% GDP annual growth rate, adjusted for inflation and seasonal impact.[1]  Consumer spending, which represents 2/3rd of the GDP, remained strong expanding at a rate of 4.2%, but it was offset by a reduction in business investment and a … [Read more...]

June in Review

Voters in the UK surprised the world on June 23rd and voted to exit the European Union.  Polling anticipated a “too close to call” result, but in the last days leading up to the vote sentiment seemed to favor “Remain”.  The vote to “Leave” rocked global markets and the Dow shed 900 points in two days.  Then as if to scoop up bargains, buyers rushed in and … [Read more...]

Global Markets Decline

The U. S. stock market opened to the upside this morning (Tuesday, August 25) bouncing off yesterday’s close in a way that may encourage some investors that things are not really as bad as they thought only twenty-four hours ago.  After trading in a narrow range for the last ten months, the stock market has declined 10% in the past week.  This drop is being … [Read more...]

Technical Weakness in the Market

Volatility continued in the market in July as headlines at home and around the world provided investors with plenty of uncertainty.  The Greek drama continued as Greece formally defaulted on $1.7 billion in debt at the end of June.  Stocks in China peaked in June at the highest value in seven years, and then sold off sharply in July.  The Federal Reserve … [Read more...]

Volatility and Its Significance

Volatility is a measure of the variation in the price of stocks.  You may remember trading days earlier this year when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow) moved up or down as much as 200 to 300 points in one day.  That is volatility.  The VIX is a chart that was created by Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1993 to track volatility.  It is used today … [Read more...]

A Range-Bound Market

The battle between buyers and sellers has kept the major indexes range-bound in 2015.  The Dow and the S&P are struggling to make progress with the Dow continuing to back off each time it tips above 18,000 and the S&P is struggling to get above 2,100.  The Dow closed above 18,000 for the first time ever at the end of December and reached an all-time … [Read more...]

September Market Update

The market resumed its push higher in August with gains second only to February so far this year.  The S&P 500 index crossed the psychological line of 2,000 and closed August on that high.  The Dow which crossed 17,000 in July and then fell back, closed August at 17,078.  And, the NASDAQ, which was the highest % gainer of the major indexes in August, is … [Read more...]

The Stock Market Continues to Push to New Highs

On Tuesday, August 26, the S&P 500 Index closed above 2000 for the first time ever.  After lagging earlier this year, the small caps, represented by the Russell 2000 Index, have given the strongest showing of all the major indexes since August 1.   And the NASDAQ is less than 10% away from its all-time record high set in March of 2000. In our view, … [Read more...]

How’s 2014 Doing So Far?

January was a challenging month with the major indexes losing -6% in a two week period after a strong 4th quarter in 2013.  An important part of our risk management strategy includes identifying exit prices for every stock or fund in an account.  When we buy a position, to protect our accounts against a potentially large loss, we determine at what price we … [Read more...]

The Big Disconnect

The stock market is up strongly this year, but earnings growth has slowed to a crawl. Jurrien Timmer, director of Global Macro at Fidelity weighs in on what may be in store for 2014. Click the link below to find out what he has to say. 2014 Market Outlook   This report is a publication of Guelich Capital Management LLC, a registered investment … [Read more...]